Strengthened by his re-election, Putin is announcing increased steps to re-establish hegemony in the post-Soviet space. Further escalation seems inevitable, not only in Ukraine, but also in Moldova. This means that another war is becoming more likely, at the end of this year at the earliest. Until then, Russia’s primary strategy remains focused on overthrowing the pro-European government of Maia Sandu by means of hybrid destabilization strategies. Transnistria remains a decisive lever for Moscow. But with Gagauzia, another conflict is now coming into the spotlight. Please listen to my podcast on Gagauzia with Kevin Schulte from NTV. Here is the link.
In early summer, the peace negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh seemed to be close to a major breakthrough. Since then, however, the conflict positions have hardly shifted. Even more, the blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan and the prevention of aid transports from Azerbaijan by the local government have led to a humanitarian catastrophe in the isolated region. On September 11, Hannes discussed the roots of the conflict, the geopolitical constellation in the region, and the propsects for peace with Barbara Zeithammer (Ö1 moderator), including questions from the audience. Please follow the link to the radio discussion.
Dr. Johannes Leitner will give a keynote speech on Market Entry Due Diligence and Sanctions Management at the 13th annual conference on BUSINESS ETHICS ANTI-CORRUPTION COMPLIANCE & FRAUD PREVENTION STRATEGIES IN CEE. The conference will take place in Prague on 21 Septemer. He will moreover contribute to the panel discussion on the current status of the sanctions regime and its impact on corporate activities. Please see the programme for more information on the conference.
Dr. Johannes Leitner was invited to to the Federal Commission for International Affairs of the Wirtschaftsrat (Economic Council) in Berlin, where he gave a speech on the "Effects of political strategies on corporate decisions".
As Johannes pointed out, we are currently in a process of slight deglobalisation. Unlike in the past, international relations are no longer primarliy dominated by business and trade interests. The driving factor is rather the primacy of politics. In fact, this is not an entirely new phenomenon. Such trends have been observable for more then ten years now. Economic rationality is increasingly giving way to political goals. This means that more then ever before, chances for companies have to be examined on the basis of geopolitical risk constellations. An example of this are trade policy interventions in the relationship between the USA and China, reducing economic interdependencies. In this context again, the main features of this China strategy reach far back to the term of office of George W. Bush Junior.
Please follow this link to the full content of the keynote speech.
From May to July, the L&M PRISK team had an additional member. William Menkes, a student at the University of Colorado, practiced corporate intelligence, KYC, and investigative research.
Hannes: Dear William, thank you very much for your great support during the last weeks. Can you please give us some details on the exchange program, you were part of?
William: I was part of an internship program this summer called IES that connects Americans on university campuses with international internship opportunities and business professionals. Furthermore, I completed two courses on Austrian politics and business in relation to the United States as well as a German Intensive.
Hannes: Why did you decide to come to Vienna?
I choose Vienna because it was important to me to work in a German-speaking city to practice my language. I also study international relations and German with a focus on the post-Soviet space. Vienna of course is somewhat of a political hub in Europe with the UN headquarters lying there. I thought it would be the best option to combine these two interests.
Hannes: What experiences did you make during your internship?
While working for L&M PRISK this summer, I learned about KYC reports and corporate investigation. I gained a glimpse into the process of conducting background reports. I also learned about NGOs through research and how business connections are made. I of course made some good connections with you and Johannes and your team. I also learned about the Austrian work culture and professional businesses in general as this was my first opportunity at working for one.
Hannes: Why do you think political risk consulting is important?
William: I am currently studying international relations due to my interest in European affairs and how it pertains to nations in the EU and post-Soviet space today. I believe political risk consulting is especially important in diverse regions of the world such as Europe today. Experts in the geopolitical landscape of a diverse region such as Europe are a necessity in guiding a business’s professional operations through sanctions, trade, ESG, conflict, etc... Specialists in this field offer a variety of expertise an organisation can use to gain a new self-reflective angle on moving forward with international operations.
Hannes: Thank you, William. We wish you all the best for your future.
Special Issue by Johannes Leitner and Hannes Meissner
Johannes Leitner and Hannes Meissner have edited a special issue of the academic journal “Wirtschaft und Management”. It is dedicated to the war in Ukraine, the conflict between the West (EU/USA) and Russia and associated geopolitical shifts at the global level. It sheds light on consequences of this constellation for enterprises and asks how businesses can manage this new situation. The special issue contains contributions by Florence Ertel and Julian Plottka (University of Passau), Oxana Karnaukhova (University of Passau), as well as Albert Hayrapetyan and Susanna Aghajanyan (Armenian State University of Economics). In their own contribution, Hannes Meissner and Johannes Leitner zero in on the dramatic geopolitical changes currently taking place against the backdrop of the Russian attack on Ukraine. They analyse the possible effects on enterprises and provide an outlook on new risk management strategies in ligh of Russia’s strong influence on post-Soviet countries. The edited volume is available at this link.
On 26 June 2023 (09:00-11:30) the Schneider Group holds a business breakfast at Hilton Vienna Park (Stadtpark 1, 1010 Vienna). The event is dedicated to the business environment and HR in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, as well as green energy, pharma, agriculture and logistics, and sucess stories and pitfalls.
The following presentations are scheduled:
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as the New Eurasian Tiger States with Clemens Machal, Commercial Counsellor & Trade Commissioner of Austria for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
Growth opportunities in Kazakhstan with Kirill Afanasyev, Partner SCHNEIDER GROUP Kazakhstan
HR for market entry and business expansion in Kazakhstan with Olga Nezgovorova, HR Director SCHNEIDER GROUP Kazakhstan
Growth opportunities and HR in Uzbekistan with Nodir Ayupov, Partner SCHNEIDER GROUP Uzbekistan
Between euphoria and regulations: compliance management for Central Asia and the South Caucasus with Dr. Johannes Leitner, Managing Partner, LM-Prisk
Project taxation Central Asia with Andreas Radu, Professional, ICON Wirtschaftstreuhand GmbH
After the presentations, a Q&A session will take place.
For the detailed program, please follow this link. Please register until 26 Juni via this link.
The event will be held in English.
In his recent podcast, Kevin Schulte (NTV) analyses the current status of the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. For more than a hundred years, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting over the once mixed ethnic region. Currently, a solution to the conflict seems closer than ever - at least on paper. Russia, meanwhile, is trying everything to freeze the conflict again. Hannes Meissner reports from the Armenian capital Yerevan.
Kevin Schulte (NTV) dedicates a podcast to the situation in Georgia. The country has been trying to join the EU and NATO for years. Most people in the country are pro-Western oriented, but Russia is currently restoring its influence . Direct flights between Moscow and Tbilisi are the first step. Hannes Meissner provides insights.
On May 18, Markus Lanz dedicated his talkshow to the Republic of Moldova. Guests in the studio were politician Michael Roth, journalist Liudmila Corlăteanu, political scientist Hannes Meissner and Russia expert Boris Schumatsky. Please watch the video in the ZDF mediathek.
Johannes Leitner spoke at DHK Business Breakfast
Central Asia and the South Caucasus are experiencing an economic boom. At the same time, increasingly stringent regulations apply to business activities in the region.Johannes Leitner, expert in the field of political risk management and business strategy, shared insights into opportunitites and risks in the region at the DHK Business Breakfast at DHK's offices in Vienna.
Building on his project experience, Johannes provided details on economic dynamics, regulatory and political risks, and classic compliance challenges and management strategies. "The regulatory environment does not affect every company equally. Retailers face different challenges than a logisticis company or equipment manufacturer," the political risk expert highlighted. However, the fact is - despite geopolitical obstacles and sanctions - there is strong growth in the region, he said.
Johannes further emphasized that the war in Ukraine is going along with geopolitical shifts of global dimension. As a result of this, a return to the pre-war constellation and business as usual is unlikely, even in the long-term.
The post-Soviet region of Central Asia, and here in particular Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have recently attracted increased interest from German and Austrian companies, Johannes said. In addition to the opportunities offered by the markets themselves, this is primarily due to the shift in trade flows as a result of the Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The establishment of new business partnerships, and the shift of supply and distribution chains are accompanied by compliance challenges that need to be managed against the backdrop of increasingly strict national and international compliance rules, the consultant said.
Johannes Leitner (left) and Thomas Gindele (right), head of the DHK in Austria
Kevin Schulte (NTV) dedicates his latest podcast to Turkmenistan. Thanks to the high income from the export of natural gas, the ruling elite lives in wealth, while the population is impoverished. The money is systematically wasted on gigantic construction projects and the personality cult around the president. An entire provincial capital is now being dedicated to the former president, which is being built. Hannes Meissner provides the background to the story.
On 17 and 18 April, workshops and discussion panels took place within the framework of the "Vienna Dialogue". The event took place in the premises of the WKO. The format is organized by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation (Vienna Office) and the University of Passau. The Vienna Dialogue aims at developing concrete proposals for utilizing the potentials of German-Austrian cooperation in order to inspire European Union (EU) policy by providing innovative ideas.
In the course of the event, L&M PRISK contributed its own expertise to the working group on enlargement policy. In this group, experts with technical and regional expertise discussed European responses to climate change and the conditions for joint initiatives. The experts analyzed the impact of climate change in Southeast Europe, especially on agriculture and tourism. In addition, they developed adequate responses, paying particular attention to processes and reforms that individual states should implement in the field of energy policy. Another focus was put on the question of how to maximize the influence of the European Union in the enlargement process. One conclusion was that state capture and corruption are major problems in the Western Balkan states. Transparent tender processes, the strengthening of the European Public Prosecutor's Office, new institutions and shared sovereignty, as well as innovative and small-scale projects tailored to SMEs could make a significant contribution in the future.
Hannes Meissner (L&M PRISK) during the presentation of the results of the working groups.
The topic could not be more relevant today. Russia's war in Ukraine, sanctions, fragile supply chains, reputational risks, conflict between the USA/EU and China/Russia and their respective allies, the list goes on.
In the midst of this mishmash of disruptive developments on a geopolitical level, public companies must set the strategic course for their business development. And they must explain these decisions to their investors, the capital market, in a well-founded manner. A difficult task, but one that can be accomplished.
For this purpose, CIRA organized a CIRA TV webinar on April 20, 2023, moderated by Hannes Roither (Palfinger) and Johannes Leitner (LM PRISK) as an expert for the management of geopolitical risks.
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Stephan Ozsváth shares insights into Moldova - a torn country. He reports that the former Soviet republic wants to join the EU. But the country suffers from the frozen conflict over the breakaway region of Transnistria. This part of the country seeks proximity to Russia and Russian soldiers are stationed there. The Kremlin is using this conflict for a hybrid war against the pro-European government in Chisinau. For Moldova, Ukraine is a kind of life insurance. If Ukraine wins the war against Russia, Moldova will be spared. The radio report features voices from the country as well as foreign experts, including Hannes Meissner from L&M PRISK.
Discussion series with L&M PRISK at Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft, CIRA and DIHK
The post-Soviet region of Central Asia, and here again especially Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, has recently attracted increasing interest from German and Austrian companies. Besides the opportunities offered by the markets themselves, this is mainly due to the shift of trade flows as a result of the Ukraine war and the sanctions against Russia and Belarus. The establishment of new business partnerships and the shift of supply and distribution chains is accompanied by compliance challenges that have to be managed against the background of increasingly strict national and international compliance regulations.
Based on own project experiences in Central Asia and the South Caucasus, the discussion series provides insights into classic compliance challenges and management strategies. The presentations cover Uzbekistan (under Mirziyoyev), Kazakhstan (since Tokayev), all other Central Asian states (Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) as well as the South Caucasus (Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia). Trade partners in the region are traditionally closely linked to the ruling elites. Compliance challenges relate not only to informal practices prevailing in the region and their consequences, but above all to the breach of European or U.S. sanctions regulations. In the latter perspective, the close ties of local politicians and businessmen to Russia, to Afghanistan, and to Iran (for example, via Jebel Ali Free Zone) come into play. In this respect, the presentations will provide insights into which methods (KYC Analysis, Partner Monitoring, Compliance Documentation, etc.) should be used to manage compliance challenges according to methods of national/international common practice, so that business can use the opportunities these markets offer.
For more information, please contact L&M PRISK.
In a recent podcast, Kevin Schulte (NTV) provides an overview of the political situation in the individual post-Soviet states, their attitude toward Russia, and Russia's interests toward them. Various military experts and political scientists, including Hannes Meissner of LM PRISK, contribute to the analysis.
In the Deutsche Welle TV news program "Der Tag", Hannes Meissner analyses Russian interests in the Republic of Moldova and the post-Soviet space. He argues that Russia is pursuing a hegemonic project in the post-Soviet space that also targets Moldova. Due to the precarious situation in which the country finds itself and due to multiple dependencies on Russia, the EU's possibilities for exerting influence are limited. Please follow the link to the video (in German).
The crisis in Moldova continues to escalate after the government says it has prevented a plot with Russia in the context of the anti-government protests. Hannes Meissner analyses the current situation in a news contribution by Birgit Schwarz (ORF) in the Ö1 Mittagsjournal (13 March).
“Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine shifts the focus to the small republic of Moldova. Russian soldiers are stationed in its eastern autonomous region of Transnistria - and Moldova's pro-European leadership is warning of a coup. Stephan Ozsváth talks about this with political scientist Hannes Meißner.” Please follow the link to the interview.