An analysis of how sanctions, tariffs and security‑driven interests are reshaping the globalized economic order and pushing companies into a new sphere of geopolitical responsibility.

The formerly globalized economic order is disintegrating and increasingly shaped by security interests and geopolitical rivalry. States are once again employing sanctions, tariffs and regulatory controls more aggressively, fundamentally altering economic processes. As a result, companies themselves become actors in security policy, since their decisions can have geopolitical consequences. At the same time, the spiral of sanctions among major players such as the EU, the United States, China and Russia is intensifying, leading to the creation of alternative trade structures. The new article by Johannes Leitner explains why economic decisions will increasingly be influenced by a more multipolar and conflict‑laden world order, what role the “globoligarchs” play in this shift, and how the new situation affects companies' everyday realities.

Springer Edition on Germany’s Ukraine Policy

The volume, edited by Wolfgang Gieler (Dortmund University of Applied Sciences) and Meik Novak (Hamburg University of the Armed Forces), analyzes Germany's Ukraine policy from three key perspectives: development cooperation, foreign policy, and security policy. In their book chapter “State capture, geopolitics, and EU reform pressure: Opportunities and risks for foreign direct investment and socioeconomic development,” Managing Partner Hannes Meissner and Yaroslav Prytula (Ukrainian Catholic University of Lviv) analyze Ukraine's socioeconomic development prospects and the opportunities and risks the country offers for foreign direct investment. While potential EU membership and extensive reconstruction aid from the West raise hopes for a democratic Ukraine governed by the rule of law with a dynamic economy, two major categories of political risk stand in the way of this scenario: state capture and geopolitical risks. The analysis shows from a historical and conceptual perspective that both categories of risk are deeply rooted and extremely persistent. Finally, the article assesses how the Russian invasion and reform pressure from the EU have shaped these trends and derives three scenarios for future foreign direct investment and socioeconomic outcomes.

Presentation by Dr. Hannes Meissner on Central Asia at the Austrian Defense Academy.

At the Austrian Defence Academy, international experts gathered to discuss “IS Khorasan Province – Ideology, Networks, and Global Security Dynamics.” The conference, organized by Walter Posch and Hessam Habibi Doroh, addressed a highly topical and pressing security issue.

While many contributions focused on developments in Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, the presentation by Dr. Hannes Meissner centered on Central Asia. Titled “Central Asia in the Transnational Networks of ISKP: Responses, Counter-Extremism and Challenges,” it examined the region’s role in ISKP’s transnational structures as well as state and societal responses to extremist threats.

Even though the corporate focus was not at the center of this conference, the topic is also highly relevant for companies, as large companies need to screen job applicants and employees for religious radicalization tendencies. This is necessary due to a new strategy by IS Khorasan. It aims to identify, radicalize, and mobilize young adults in the West who are socially isolated and dissatisfied and spend a lot of time on social media, playing computer games, and surfing the internet. The difficulty with screening individuals lies in the fact that those at risk have often been completely inconspicuous up to now. Follow the link to the presentation.

Dr. Hannes Meissner Presenter at Pre-Davos Workshop

On 18 January 2026, the University of Zurich and the European Business Association (EBA) welcomed corporate leaders travelling to the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos to participate in a practice‑oriented workshop titled “Geopolitical Scenarios for Corporate Leaders in Ukraine.” During the event, Dr. Hannes Meissner introduced scenario planning as a structured method designed to help companies navigate uncertainty by systematically analyzing future developments. The workshop focused specifically on Ukraine, and in the practical exercise participants identified geopolitical developments and military developments as the two critical uncertainties shaping business strategy.

Scenario planning emphasizes the identification of all relevant influencing factors, the determination of key uncertainties—such as shifts in the military situation and global geopolitics—and the formulation of balanced assumptions informed by expert insights. The method encourages the development of a small number of realistic scenarios, including best‑ and worst‑case options, and the assessment of their implications. Ultimately, companies are guided to develop concrete strategies for each scenario while continuously monitoring ongoing developments, as scenario planning is an iterative and long‑term process rather than a one‑time exercise. Follow the link to the presentation.

Dr. Hannes Meissner leading a workshop group

Compliance Praxis article by Johannes Leitner und Hannes Meissner

The United Arab Emirates, particularly Dubai with the Jebel Ali Free Zone (JAFZA), are among the most important global trading hubs and offer companies attractive infrastructural and regulatory advantages. At the same time, the low transparency of such free trade zones entails considerable trade compliance risks, particularly with regard to possible sanctions circumvention. Trade – especially with Iran and potential re-exports to Russia or Belarus – often takes place via intermediaries, which makes comprehensive control difficult. The full article explains exactly how companies are overcoming these challenges – and why Dubai continues to boom as a hot spot for global trade despite all the risks. Please follow the link.

Geopolitical risks, trade compliance, sanstions and the economic dynamics in the CEE region were the focus of the panel discussion during the DRIVE EAST Forum, organized in November 2025 in cooperation with the Institute for the Danube Region and Central Europe, the Competence Center for Emerging Markets & CEE at WU Vienna, and AUSSENWIRTSCHAFT AUSTRIA. Dr. Johannes Leitner’s presentation dealt with new challenges for companies regarding trade compliance management.

Please follow the link.

On 30 October 2025, EQS Connect brought together experts from the fields of trade compliance, law and governance in Vienna to develop practical strategies and new perspectives. Besides, the aim was to present the most important findings from the Whistleblowing Report 2025. EQS Connect provides a framework for discussing how responsible corporate governance can be achieved in times of regulatory dynamics, technological change and increasing transparency requirements. Dr Johannes Leitner provided insights into the influence of geopolitics on enterprises and the growing importance of trade compliance.

Please follow the link to Dr. Johannes Leitner’s presentation.

CompliancePraxis article by Johannes Leitner and Hannes Meissner

The global economic and security order is undergoing profound change: fragmentation, geopolitical power shifts and a resurgence of neorealist political approaches are increasingly calling into question the previously dominant logic of globalization. For companies, this means a new reality in which sanctions, tariffs and export controls are no longer the exception, but rather central conditions for their international activities. At the same time, there is growing pressure to establish robust trade compliance structures that offer security without slowing down business operations. This article shows how closely geopolitics and trade compliance are now intertwined – and what strategies companies have to apply in this complex, multipolar world.

Please follow the link.

The Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP) has gained a new member in January 2026: Managing Partner Dr Johannes Leitner has joined the prestigious institute as an affiliated researcher, due to his expertise on geopolitical risks, global power shifts, the transformation of the international order and the impact of these changes on European companies. In this regard, the goal is to establish synergies between the OIIP and L&M PRISK. Since 1979, the OIIP has been one of Austria's most important independent research institutions, providing in-depth analyses of international politics.

Presentation by Dr Johannes Leitner at the GCM Parker Conference

The annual GCM Parker Conference, held for the 15th time in the Czech capital in October, brought together international company representatives and experts to discuss business ethics, anti-corruption, compliance and fraud prevention strategies in Central and Eastern Europe. Recent research across Europe indicates that companies are increasingly exposed to fraud, corruption and schemes of sanctions circumvention. In addition, the increase in political intervention in trade over the last 5 years has been clearly noticeable. According to Dr Hannes Meissner and Dr Johannes Leitner, a well-developed trade compliance system is an indispensable tool to establish a safe haven for companies in these turbulent times, characterized by geopolitical tensions, hybrid warfare and geopolitical tensions.

The slides from the presentation can be found at this link.

Dr. Johannes Leitner explains the mandatory pillars of a modern trade compliance system

NTV podcast by Kevin Schulte with Managing Partner Dr. Hannes Meissner

A sudden traffic jam stretching for miles at the border between Kazakhstan and Russia has brought freight traffic between the two countries to a standstill for months. Customs officials on the Kazakh and Russian sides are checking deliveries very carefully. Experts discuss the geopolitical reasons for this.

The Oral-Samara highway is an important hub for freight transport between the two countries, which are members of the Eurasian Economic Union. The importance of the transport corridor has increased since the start of the war in Ukraine, as goods that can no longer be delivered to Russia directly are being transported via Kazakhstan.

“There are conflicting interpretations of the reasons for the blockade, underscoring the geopolitical significance of this incident”, says Dr. Hannes Meissner. While Moscow argues that Russia had to close the border for security reasons, some Western experts believe that this incident represents a serious move by Kazakhstan away from Russia and toward the West.

In the NTV podcast, managing partner Dr. Hannes Meissner argues that Kazakhstan has always tried to strike a balance between Russia, China, and the West. On the one hand, its Soviet past means it is heavily dependent on Russia. On the other hand, it seeks cooperation with China and the West. Therefore, the blockade is more of a symbolic act than a new reality that would mean better compliance with Western sanctions against Russia. Kazakhstan wants to demonstrate its sovereignty to Russia while presenting itself to the West as a reliable partner. This is entirely in line with its traditional policy of balancing between both sides.

Please follow the link to the NTV Podcast. 

Expert contributions by Dr Hannes Meissner and Dr Johannes Leitner at the Economic Council at Moody's, Frankfurt/Main

The high-profile network International Circle of the Economic Council of Hessen (Wirtschaftsrat Hessen) is a meeting place for entrepreneurs, politicians and experts to discuss the hottest topics relevant for businesses. In October 2025, the event ‘Pressure Points: Sanctions, Sovereignty and the New Geopolitical Order’ brought together experts and practitioners to discuss the role sanctions play in shaping sovereignty, power and the emerging global order.

In his keynote speech, Managing Partner Dr Hannes Meissner spoke about the new geopolitical realities and sanctions as a foreign policy instrument that dominates global business relations. To meet new minimum standards of trade compliance, companies must evolve their traditional export control systems into an integrated and centralized trade compliance management system. Investigation software programs and comprehensive, in-depth analysis by experts are indispensable today.

The practical workshop entitled ‘Sanctions in the shadows: Mastering geopolitical risks and increasing sanction complexity’, led by Dr Johannes Leitner, Managing Partner, LM Political Risk and Strategy Advisory, and Hera Smith, Director and Practice Lead for Financial Crime Compliance at Moody's, focused on identifying key risk areas, analyzing current developments and sharing experiences on strategies for dealing with uncertainty.

The presentation slides can be found at this link.

Hera Smith (Moody´s) and Dr. Johannes Leitner (LM PRISK)

Publication by Dr Johannes Leitner and Dr Hannes Meissner in ‘Compliance Praxis’

One of the largest trade hubs worldwide is the UAE (United Arab Emirates) – a centre of global trade. Companies benefit from excellent infrastructure and business-friendly conditions. However, this is offset by enormous trade compliance risks posed by the black box that is the Jebel Ali Free Zone, which must be managed. An analysis of this can be found in the September issue of the magazine ‘Compliance Praxis’.

Expert input from Dr Johannes Leitner at the "Ost-Auschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft"

The format of the “Ost-Ausschuss der Deutschen Wirtschaft" is aimed directly at companies in Russia and Germany and is primarily intended to facilitate the exchange of experiences, practical ways of dealing with the situation and to provide greater clarity and certainty. The September edition focused in particular on the effects of the European Union's 18th package of sanctions, tax and legal adjustments in the Russian Federation, and the possible impact of the changed political situation on companies.

Key takeaways included:

While Russia's budget is constrained by decreasing oil and gas revenues, those industries profiting from the war economy are still doing well.

However, public spending will need to be managed more stringently than in the past years.

Military and security expenditures will remain high.

Sanctions do have an impact on Russia's economic performance.

The slides from the presentation can be found at the following link.

Presentation by Dr. Johannes Leitner at the Vienna Stock Exchange’s “Digital Capital Market Update”

The Vienna Stock Exchange's (Wiener Börse AG) digital capital market updates provide regular information on news from the Vienna Stock Exchange and highlight market developments with selected capital market experts. In the September edition, Alois Wögerbauer, Managing Director of 3 Banken-Generali Invest, shared his analysis of the global and domestic economy and the stock markets. Managing Partner Dr. Johannes Leitner then reported on how geopolitical risks should be taken into account as new variables in the corporate context and what strategic adjustments this entails for companies. The session was moderated by Henriette Lininger (Wiener Börse AG).

Key takeaways were:

1. Geopolitical risks are a new variable in corporate management

2. Political interventions in global trade are on the rise

3. Globalization is being replaced by political objectives

4. An integrative approach is necessary for corporate management

The slides from the presentation can be found at this link.

Henriette Lininger (Wiener Börse AG), Alois Wögerbauer (3 Banken-Generali Invest), Johannes Leitner (L&M PRISK)

“Profil” Interview with Dr. Hannes Meissner

Managing Partner Dr. Hannes Meissner gave an interview to the Austrian newspaper "Profil" on the Russian strategy behind the Russian drone incursion into Poland. The incident proofs that real peace negotiations on Ukraine are out of reach. Russia insists on its maximum goals, which are the same as before the war in 2022. In Moscow's eyes, Ukraine's sole integration into a Russian dominated security block is non-negotiable. While Europe is discussing peace oppourtunities and ReBuild Ukraine, the drone incursion into Poland shall re-emphasize this claim and threaten Western states and societies. It shall remind them that the price of supporting Ukraine is high, as the ongoing war entails the risk of a direct war between NATO and Russia. This is the link to the newspaper article.

Geopolitical Risks and Market Entry Decisions

Given the tectonic shifts we are currently experiencing in politics, economics and business on a global scale, we need a new generation of decision-makers who are able to understand and manage these developments and their consequences. Against this backdrop, Dr Johannes Leitner was invited to share L&M PRISK's insights and experiences with the students of this year's CEMS (The Global Alliance in Management Education) group at the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University.

The guest lecture focused on geopolitics and economic fragmentation, the impact of geopolitical risks on businesses, and the importance of the corporate perspective in assessing the risk context. In addition, the students discussed a real-life case study to apply all these aspects. The presentation slides can be found at this link.

(Geo-)political Risks require an adequate Trade Compliance System

Dubai is one of the world's most important trading centres. Goods from all over the world are shipped via Dubai to destinations around the globe. For many companies, Dubai is the ideal location for distributing their products.

The risk posed by the region's trading centre lies in the lack of transparency along the distribution chain. Companies can lose track of where their products ultimately end up. Another particular risk is the country's geographical proximity to Iran. From a trade compliance perspective, this is indeed a nightmare.

L&M PRISK's task was to take a close look at the processes on site, uncover sanctions circumvention practices, and establish a functioning trade compliance system at company level.

Photo: L&M PRISK

Authors of The Routledge Handbook of Political Risk establish Academic Institution

The Political Risk Studies Association (PRSA) serves as a space to promote networking and scientific/academic exchange among researchers, students, companies, consultants, and any individuals interested in the topic of political risk analysis and management.

The Association will maintain a digital platform to foster open conversation, exchange of ideas, updates, publications, and discussion of a variety of aspects of political risk analysis for both experts and individuals interested in the topic. It will also provide information on seminars and webinars, conferences or workshops on the topic of political risk. We plan to host one in-person event per year, with the first taking place in spring 2026.

Membership is free. If you are passionate about political risk, come and join in the conversation.

LM PRISK Partnership with LexisNexis

As of July 1, 2025, L&M PRISK is the exclusive partner for trade compliance of the Compliance Network Austria. The network aims to professionalize and anchor compliance in Austrian companies. Information, further training and the transfer of experience and knowledge are the focus of all network activities. The heart of the network is the platform www.compliance-praxis.at, which provides daily updates on innovations and trends and invites active networking. LM PRISK will contribute its expertise on the current and highly relevant topic of trade compliance management. With a focus on geopolitical framework conditions, investigative insights and best-practice know-how on the latest standards of trade compliance requirements, LM PRISK stands for methodical competence and innovative solutions.