Between Stability and Radicalization: New Book Chapter by Dr. Hannes Meissner and Dr. Johannes Leitner Examines the ISKP Challenge in Central Asia

A publication in the series of the Austrian National Defence Academy and the Institute for Peace Support and Conflict Management

The latest volume in the publication series of the Austrian National Defence Academy, Between (B)Order and Disorder: The Islamic State Khorasan Province and Centre-Periphery Dynamics in Iran and Beyond, examines the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) within the broader context of borderlands and centre-periphery relations across Afghanistan, Iran, Central Asia, and South Asia. Rather than viewing ISKP solely as a jihadist organisation, the volume situates its emergence within the complex interplay of militant networks, state governance, minority relations, and contested borderlands. The contributions explore the ideological foundations and evolution of the organisation while also analysing the regional security dynamics linking Afghanistan with its neighbouring regions, particularly recruitment networks, cross-border mobility, and transnational extremist ideologies. Another major focus is the role of state institutions and borderland governance in both the emergence of and responses to militant movements. The volume demonstrates how local, national, and regional factors interact to shape contemporary dynamics of violence and security.

In their chapter, Central Asia in the Transnational Networks of ISKP: Responses, Counter-Extremism and Challenges, Dr. Hannes Meissner and Dr. Johannes Leitner examine the threat posed by the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) to Central Asia and analyse the strategies adopted by the region’s five Central Asian states to contain it. The authors argue that the region’s remarkable stability is largely rooted in strong authoritarian state structures, effective border management, and extensive intelligence cooperation, all of which have been significantly shaped by the Soviet legacy. At the same time, Russia continues to play a pivotal role as a security actor, particularly through intelligence cooperation and regional security arrangements.

Although ISKP regards Central Asia as an important recruitment and operational arena and seeks to replace the existing state order with a pan-regional caliphate, the organisation’s prospects for success remain limited due to the considerable resilience of Central Asian states. However, Dr. Meissner and Dr. Leitner demonstrate that repression, corruption, social inequality, and limited economic opportunities may gradually erode the legitimacy of existing regimes, thereby creating conditions conducive to radicalisation. Particularly vulnerable are marginalised Central Asian migrant communities abroad, which have increasingly become targets of extremist recruitment efforts. Against this backdrop, the states of the region have pursued a pragmatic approach towards the Taliban, viewing economic development, regional infrastructure projects, and cross-border cooperation as essential foundations for long-term stability and security. The chapter concludes that the most significant risks to Central Asian stability stem less from Afghanistan itself than from the region’s unresolved social, economic, and political challenges.

Overall, the edited volume provides a comprehensive analysis of one of Eurasia’s most significant security challenges by bringing together academic and practitioner perspectives. In doing so, it makes an important contribution to ongoing debates on transnational extremism, borderland governance, and regional security.