New Scenario Analysis: The US-Iran War and the Contested Gulf

New article by Jakob Sebök and Johannes Leitner

Jakob Sebök and Dr.Johannes Leitner (LM Political Risk and Strategy Advisory) have published a new scenario analysis examining the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran and its implications for international business. The report assesses the key drivers of the conflict, outlines three possible scenarios through the end of 2027, and evaluates their likelihood. Particular attention is given to the impact on global trade, energy markets, shipping, compliance, and European industries such as chemicals, mechanical engineering, and metalworking. The authors conclude that a prolonged attritional stalemate is the most likely outcome, requiring companies to adapt to a structurally higher-risk operating environment. Follow for the artcle.